Current:Home > MarketsThe ferocity of Hurricane Otis stunned hurricane experts and defied forecast models. Here's why.-InfoLens
The ferocity of Hurricane Otis stunned hurricane experts and defied forecast models. Here's why.
View Date:2024-12-23 14:26:00
Shattered windows. Mud-filled streets. A desperate search for the missing. These are the impacts of one of the most catastrophic storms to hit Acapulco in decades.
The fury and quick strengthening of Hurricane Otis surprised both forecasters and hurricane experts.
Wind speeds jumped by 115 mph in a single day. It normally takes much longer for that kind of increase. Otis' intensification rate is the second fastest recorded in modern times, the National Hurricane Center reported. The change prompted the Center to describe the disaster as a "nightmare scenario."
This type of explosive growth is a phenomenon known as rapid intensification. It is becoming more common in some areas now, according to a recent study published in Scientific Reports.
"What these analyses show is that, over time there are ... increased chances of storms intensifying most quickly in regions that include the tropical eastern Atlantic, a region along the U.S. East Coast, and the southern Caribbean Sea," said Andra J. Garner, Ph.D., who wrote the study.
The research points to a warming planet as the cause behind stronger storms. 2023 saw abnormally high surface temperatures in the ocean. Otis, for example, passed through 88-degree surface waters before slamming into Mexico. Similarly, Hurricane Idalia rapidly intensified from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 4 storm before hitting the Florida coast in August.
"We would not see as strong of hurricanes if we didn't have the warm ocean and Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico," said Richard Knabb, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel and the former director of the National Hurricane Center. "That is the fuel."
Now, NOAA is sending drones in the air, on the water and below the ocean's surface to better predict when conditions could cause rapid intensification.
"Think of the ocean as the gas tank for the hurricane that is the engine," said Knabb. "The more high-octane fuel you give it, the more it is able to accelerate in terms of its maximum speed, and the fuel they use is the warm waters of the ocean. The hurricane converts the energy in the ocean into low pressure that generates all the wind."
Researchers at NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are also using artificial intelligence, or AI, to analyze that data quickly.
"Artificial intelligence is being examined to sift through all of that information coming from forecast models, helping us make more informed human forecasts based on all that uncertainty," said Knabb. "Much of the country is vulnerable to the inland impacts, and that can mean inland flooding that could inundate entire communities like we saw with Ida. That can mean strong winds like we saw in the state of Ohio after Hurricane Ike came ashore in the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, and look at what is happening in inland areas in California with Hurricane Hilary earlier this year. "
These advancements in technology couldn't prepare the people of Acapulco for what was to come from Otis. Two days after landfall, thousands remained without power or communication. The outages and devastated infrastructure have so far prevented authorities from being able to survey the full extent of the damage.
Meteorologists are now keeping a close eye on the ocean to see what comes next. The Atlantic hurricane season doesn't end until Nov. 30.
- In:
- Mexico
- Hurricane
veryGood! (2)
Related
- Mississippi woman pleads guilty to stealing Social Security funds
- Michigan mayor dismissed from lawsuit over city’s handling of lead in water
- Lil Rod breaks silence on lawsuit against Sean 'Diddy' Combs: 'I'm being punished'
- Hard Knocks recap: Velus Jones Jr., Ian Wheeler, Austin Reed get one last chance to impress Bears
- SNL's Chloe Fineman Says Rude Elon Musk Made Her Burst Into Tears as Show Host
- American Idol's Scotty McCreery Stops Show After Seeing Man Hit Woman in the Crowd
- Don't Miss Kate Spade Outlet's Labor Day Sale: Chic Bags, Wristlets & More Up to 81% off, Starting at $19
- Auditor faults Pennsylvania agency over fees from Medicaid-funded prescriptions
- Trump on Day 1: Begin deportation push, pardon Jan. 6 rioters and make his criminal cases vanish
- RFK Jr. appeals ruling that knocked him off New York’s presidential election ballot
Ranking
- Amazon's 'Cross' almost gets James Patterson detective right: Review
- Man wins $439,000 lottery prize just after buying North Carolina home
- Reports: Veteran pitcher Rich Hill to rejoin Red Sox at age 44
- Nvidia is Wall Street’s 2nd-most valuable company. How it keeps beating expectations, by the numbers
- Dwayne Johnson Admits to Peeing in Bottles on Set After Behavior Controversy
- How safe are luxury yachts? What to know after Mike Lynch yacht disaster left 7 dead
- Bowl projections: Preseason picks for who will make the 12-team College Football Playoff
- Cheerleader drops sexual harassment lawsuit against Northwestern University
Recommendation
-
Special counsel Smith asks court to pause appeal seeking to revive Trump’s classified documents case
-
Peloton's former billionaire CEO says he 'lost all my money' when he left exercise company
-
Bristol Palin Details “Gut-Wrenching” Way Her 15-Year-Old Son Tripp Told Her He Wanted to Live With Dad
-
Report says instructor thought gun was empty before firing fatal shot at officer during training
-
Chipotle unveils cilantro-scented soap, 'water' cup candles in humorous holiday gift line
-
At 68, she wanted to have a bat mitzvah. Then her son made a film about it.
-
Lil Rod breaks silence on lawsuit against Sean 'Diddy' Combs: 'I'm being punished'
-
Minnesota state senator pleads not guilty to burglarizing stepmother’s home