Who will be in the top 12? Our College Football Playoff ranking projection

Members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will have a dilemma on their hands when it comes to dealing with Georgia.

Third in the debut playoff rankings of the season, the Bulldogs were outplayed on both sides of the ball and dropped a 28-10 decision to Mississippi for a second loss in SEC play. This will move Texas and Tennessee up in the rankings as the league’s current frontrunners.

How far Georgia falls on Tuesday night depends on how the committee weighs the team’s reputation against on-field results.

The two losses have come against teams with identical records: Alabama and the Rebels. Both losses came on the road, with the latter the more convincing. Head-to-head results do matter to the committee, believe it or not, and they could opt to put the Bulldogs behind both teams.

But Georgia has that win against Texas, one of the best wins by any team in the Bowl Subdivision this season. In the end, look for the Bulldogs to be behind the Tide but ahead of the Rebels. Here’s how the second rankings of the year should look:

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1. Oregon (10-0)

Oregon is an obvious No. 1 with no competition whatsoever for the top spot. Wins against Ohio State and Boise State are joined by a dominant run through the Big Ten. The Ducks have won five in a row and six of seven in conference play by 21 or more points. A loss in their final two games could knock them out of the Big Ten title game, depending on how tiebreakers sort out.

2. Ohio State (8-1)

The Buckeyes finally had an easy one after three games in a row decided by a single possession. Saturday’s 45-0 win against Purdue marks Ohio State’s second shutout on the year for a defense that ranks first nationally in fewest yards allowed per game. Overall, the Buckeyes have given up 96 points through nine games, with 32 of those points coming in the loss to Oregon.

3. Texas (8-1)

Texas takes over as the top-ranked team in the SEC and has a widened path to reach the conference championship game, since Georgia’s head-to-head tiebreaker is negated by Saturday’s loss. It’s worth noting that the Longhorns won’t have any wins against teams ranked on Tuesday night and have just two wins against teams with a winning record in Colorado State and Vanderbilt. That means the finale against Texas A&M might send the winner to the SEC title game and the loser out of the playoff altogether.

4. Penn State (8-1)

Penn State rebounded from a disappointing loss at home to Ohio State by rolling up nearly 500 yards of offense in a 35-6 win against Washington. This was the Nittany Lions’ first wire-to-wire win since beating UCLA in early October and will be a nice reminder to the selection committee of how good this team can be when the offense and defense are working together.

5. Tennessee (8-1)

Last month’s win against Alabama is going to do some heavy lifting for Tennessee, especially should it lose at Georgia this Saturday. That would drop the Volunteers into the at-large mix with not much on the resume besides that defeat of the Crimson Tide. But beating Georgia would send Tennessee to the SEC title game barring a collapse against Vanderbilt in the season finale.

6. Indiana (10-0)

Indiana looked mortal for the first this season during a struggle against Michigan, though the Hoosiers eventually held on for a 20-15 win. The committee might’ve been tempted to move Brigham Young ahead of Indiana had the Cougars rolled over Utah in the Holy War, but the Cougars barely squeezed out a pretty controversial 22-21 win.

7. Brigham Young (9-0)

The lack of style points could end up being an issue down the line should BYU fail to win the Big 12. That’s just one of three things to keep in mind as the regular season winds down. Another is a résumé that currently has three victories against teams with a winning record, though two are against SMU and Kansas State. BYU could add another against Arizona State on Nov. 23. The third is the logjam of two-loss teams behind BYU in the Big 12 standings and in the back end of the playoff rankings. It's clear based on last week's top 25 that the committee views the conference as the weakest in the Power Four. That creates a plausible scenario where the Cougars go 12-0 but lose the Big 12 title game and miss an at-large bid.

8. Notre Dame (8-1)

One-loss Notre Dame would be a lock for an-large bid. But finishing the season unbeaten may be more difficult than expected. Virginia just topped Pittsburgh and has made huge gains under coach Tony Elliott. Army is capable of milking the clock and making things complicated, though the Irish didn’t struggle against a similar opponent in Navy. And Southern California may be sparked by a quarterback change to backup Jayden Maiava.

9. Alabama (7-2)

The best performance by far of the Kalen DeBoer era changes the complexion of Alabama’s season. By destroying LSU 42-13, the Crimson Tide leap back into great position in the at-large race with three games left, all likely wins: Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn. An earlier win against Georgia and quality defeats of Missouri and South Carolina also are major pluses.

10. Georgia (7-2)

Miami doesn’t have the top-end wins to match what Georgia brings to the table and has faced multiple double-digit deficits this season, but the Hurricanes’ record and victories against four teams with a winning record could give them a very slight edge. That's hard to imagine. This spot should still go to the Bulldogs given wins against Texas and Clemson. Mississippi will take a nice move up the rankings after being No. 16 last week. Rising all the way to here would be too big a leap, however.