Is Hurricane Beryl going to hit Texas? The chances are increasing

Will Beryl hit Texas? That's the question on many minds as the first hurricane of the 2024 season churns across the Caribbean Sea on a path toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Portions of South Texas are now within the forecast cone of Hurricane Beryl, which meteorologists say could arrive to the state over the weekend or early Monday.

However, forecasters remain unsure of what Beryl will do and how strong it will be as it approaches the Gulf Coast after hitting Mexico: "High uncertainty remains with both the track and intensity of Beryl," the National Weather Service said Wednesday.

High pressure is the key to Hurricane Beryl's path

After battering Jamaica on Wednesday, Beryl will continue to track across the Caribbean on Thursday. Meteorologists say the storm is being steered around a large area of high pressure over the U.S.

"If the high-pressure area was to remain strong, Beryl would make landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday night or Friday and then remain mostly over land for its duration," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Hurricane Beryl tracker:See projected path of Category 4 storm as it heads toward Jamaica

"But if the high weakens just a bit, and we are seeing signs of that trend now, it may allow Beryl to take a more north-northwesterly track, in which case it may avoid more land and get into the Gulf of Mexico as a formidable hurricane instead of a chopped-down tropical storm that encounters more land," he said.

Basically, what's happening is that there's a "break" in the ridge and forecasters are waiting to see how the hurricane responds to that "break" or "weakness" in the ridge, which could allow the hurricane to move in a more northerly direction.

Beryl bears down:Jamaica braces for 'extremely dangerous' Hurricane Beryl

Will there be direct impacts in Texas from Hurricane Beryl?

"From Panama City, Florida to New Orleans, there is a low risk of direct impacts from Beryl, but from about Corpus Christi to Brownsville, Texas, the risk increases significantly due to the potential for Beryl to have more direct impacts," AccuWeather meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "That southern portion of the Texas coast is the zone we have to really watch."

C​oastal threats could begin this weekend, Weather.com warned: "Well ahead of Beryl, onshore winds could lead to increasing surf, rip currents and coastal flooding along parts of the Gulf Coast from eastern Mexico to Texas and western Louisiana beginning as soon as Saturday, and continuing until just after Beryl's final landfall," Weather.com said. The rip current threat could also even extend farther east along the northern Gulf Coast.

National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan said Tuesday that "folks in the Texas coast, as we go into the holiday weekend, you're going to want to make sure you check back on the forecast and make sure you're ready for any potential impact. If we were to see tropical storm conditions affect those areas in the far western Gulf of Mexico, it could be during the day Saturday."

Hurricane Beryl already a record-breaker

Earlier this week, Beryl jumped from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane in under 10 hours, according to Andra Garner, a Rowan University meteorologist. That marked the fastest intensification ever recorded before September, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, she said.

Smashing records:As Hurricane Beryl tears through the Caribbean, a look at its record-breaking path

Beryl neared Jamaica as a powerful Category 4 storm on Wednesday, after flattening homes and devastating agriculture on smaller islands in the eastern Caribbean, killing at least seven people and creating "Armageddon-like" conditions on Grenada.

Contributing: Brandi Addison, USA TODAY Network; Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY; Reuters