Expect higher unemployment and lower inflation in 2024, says Congressional Budget Office

The Congressional Budget Office expects a softer labor market to help lower inflation in 2024.

The 2023 labor market has been strong but gradually cooling, with a November unemployment rate of 3.7%, according to the Labor Department’s latest jobs report. The CBO expects unemployment to jump to 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and remain close to that level through 2025.

A softening labor market and slower rent increases would help the Fed nearly hit its 2% inflation target, according to the report. Inflation measured by the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to slow over the next two years, falling from an estimated 2.9% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024 before jumping back up to 2.2% in 2025.

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The report comes shortly after the Federal Reserve hinted that it could be done hiking interest rates and forecasted three cuts next year amid falling inflation and a cooling economy.

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The latest CBO report also projects real gross domestic product growth to fall from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024 as consumer spending weakens. It is then expected to rebound to 2.2% in 2025 under improved financial conditions and lower interest rates. 

But predicting the economy’s future is no easy task. The CBO says its projections are “highly uncertain, and many factors could lead to different outcomes.” Some of its predictions have already changed since its February report, which forecasted an unemployment rate of 5.1% by the end of this year compared with the current 3.7%. 

“Compared with its February 2023 projections, CBO’s current projections exhibit weaker growth, lower unemployment, and higher interest rates in 2024 and 2025,” the report reads.